The Ravens are a heavy favorite to beat Pittsburgh in the wild card round of the playoffs. They should be, but I believe that there is too much complacency around fans and pundits belief that this is an easy advance for Baltimore. Let me jump right into that, and what I took out of the Steelers loss to the Bengals.
Round Three Complacency?
Yes, the Steelers limped into the playoffs with four straight losses. Yes, they were outplayed in several of their ten wins. Whether they are deserving of a playoff spot or not, they are in for round three against the Ravens. And after the Ravens won by double digits in their recent meeting in Baltimore, and given the generally putrid play of the Steelers offense, the Ravens are seen as the biggest favorite of the wild card round weekend.
In my view of probabilities surrounding this contest, it is more likely than not that the Ravens offense versus the Steelers defense is the matchup that will determine who advances. It’s notable that the Steelers defense is much more complete than it was in the Ravens big win. Joey Porter, hands-down the Steelers best cover corner, was injured and missed significant action in the recent game in Baltimore. The Steelers second corner, Donte Jackson, didn’t play. T.J. Watt played with a bad ankle, and was unable to attack from the low angles that give him much of his edge and dominance. Larry Ogunjobi, the Steelers primary run stuffing specialist, missed the game outright. All four will be on the field Saturday.
Moreover, the loss of Zay Flowers deserves greater consideration as a negative reference point for the Ravens than perhaps is widely appreciated. Readers know I’m a big fan of Rashod Bateman, who I believe is a number one-type wide receiver. But readers also know that Bateman brings entirely different special skills than Flowers. And replacing the tremendously shifty Flowers with Nelson Agholor, and whoever else, dramatically reduces the collective skills that the Ravens wide receiver unit offers. Gone is Flowers uncanny ability to cross the field with corners universally in trail position. And gone is the brilliance Flowers possesses when Lamar extends plays.
If the Steelers elect to have Porter matchup with Bateman all over the field, the Ravens options will, de facto, be more limited. The Flowers loss is a big and real one from the perspective of forcing the Steelers to stay disciplined and cover the entire field. It will also lead to a true test of where Bateman stands.
Compensating for the Flowers Loss
Without the unique Flowers, two primary game-plan adjustments seem obvious. First, deploy Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely on the field together much more frequently. Minkah Fitzpatrick had a terrible time handling Andrews in both of the earlier matchups, and there’s no reason to believe that will change. Andrews is playing as well as he ever has as a receiver. To the extent that Fitzpatrick attempts to account for Andrews again, the Steelers choices for matching up with Likely become more challenging. If they offer up Patrick Queen against Andrews or Likely, Lamar must attack it.
Neither strong safety (DeShon Elliott and Damontae Kazee) offer much comfort for the Steelers against Likely. Elliott, for one, struggled mightily when he was matched up with Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki. With Donte Jackson back as the Steelers second corner (though it seems that he will not be at full strength), I suspect we’ll see a lot of the 5’11” Cam Sutton trying to account for Likely. That’s a physical mismatch.
The Ravens should utilize Likely in the flats, which are often allowed open by the Steelers in their zone shells. Anytime Likely draws a linebacker in coverage, the Ravens should attack it. Some late motion wide by Likely should allow Lamar to understand the Likely matchup on any given play, and reveal possible mismatches. Down the seam with Likely, when available, too.
The Ravens Running Backs
The Ravens running backs should be even more prominent this week. I don’t just mean handing the ball off more to Derrick Henry. Rather, in compensating for the Flowers loss, the game plan should incorporate several pass attempts to Keaton Mitchell. With the Steelers probably searching for their best defender to handle Likely, Mitchell undoubtedly will draw linebackers on anything to the flat or a wheel route out of the backfield.
Further, we all realize that Justice Hill is a great receiving threat. Use it. And let’s not ignore Henry as a wide receiver either. I believe he’s very underappreciated as a receiving threat. This is the week for all three running backs to get involved in the passing game. It’s also the week for the Ravens to actually run some true run-pass options plays, as the Steelers will be keying on Henry as responsibility number one for their defense.
What Clues Can We Glean From the Steelers Loss to the Bengals?
A few things were quite evident in that game. For one, the Bengals – almost exclusively – utilized a quick-toss, short passing game. They evidently didn’t trust their offensive line to give Joe Burrow sufficient time to more heavily implement their intermediate and deep passing games. There was very little of it.
Second, Joe Burrow was almost completely unable to extend plays. That just leaped off the tape. There were few broken plays where Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could press the secondary. Burrow repeatedly checked down at a two count. This underscores how important it likely will be for Lamar Jackson to extend enough plays to create real advantages for the Ravens receivers. It is, after all, the quality that differentiates Lamar from all of the rest.
Third, with the variety of blitzes run by the Steelers, Justice Hill, et al. must consistently make the correct pickup reads. There will be a lot of pressure for Hill – and whoever else – to slide to the right spot every time.
Fourth, T.J. Watt was 100% back against Cincinnati. Cody Ford had a terrible time with Watt, and the Bengals did not help him enough. Expect Ravens tight ends to chip Watt. On the other side, Alex Highsmith lines up at just about the widest edge rushing position I’ve ever seen. He exploits that angle magnificently, and I think Ronnie Stanley will have his hands full. But running some action inside of Highsmith should be available.
More From the Bengals Game
A few other things stood out. George Pickens lacked focus for much of the game, dropping catchable passes, not running out plays where he wasn’t the primary target, etc. The Steelers will throw him the deep ball at least three or four times. And because the Ravens line up Brandon Stephens almost exclusively on the right side of their defense, it’s easy for the Steelers to isolate Stephens on Pickens. This is coming, and the Ravens must be ready. Could the Ravens put Marlon Humphrey a bit on Pickens? They could, but I don’t think they will.
As I noted the last time regarding the Steelers, the rest of their receiving corps really doesn’t offer that much. Pat Freiermuth is fine as a possession receiving tight end. But Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin are each one dimensional. The Steelers seem to use Mike Williams as a jump-ball specialist. Pittsburgh must dig deeper into their playbook if Russell Wilson can possibly execute some other wrinkles.
Wilson, by the way, threw an awful lot of passes to the short right flat against Cincinnati, where Josh Newton was stationed as the corner. It was essentially a two-count and throw. Russell still possesses very good touch on his throws down the field. But I continue to question Wilson’s arm strength into tighter windows. Pittsburgh didn’t attempt any of that against the Bengals. Is Wilson capable of that against the Ravens, because if he is, they should attack with it.
Round Three – Lamar
We are all aware that, in the end, the Ravens success (or lack thereof) will likely be determined by Lamar Jackson. I and others have claimed this year that the game slowed down for Lamar. Playoff games – and his ability to perform when a loss kills your season – will determine if that is correct. Poise is the key for Jackson. As a general proposition, he’s lacked poise in his prior playoff attempts.
Part of the needed poise is the recognition that the team is more likely to win if Lamar allows his teammates to carry and execute their respective responsibilities. Sure, he can be the superstar extending plays, or breaking into the open with his feet. But he must remain poised against adversity, accept that he will lose some plays, and play on with no memory of failure. And he simply must play with poise in the fourth quarter.
Malik Harrison
The one thing that I just don’t want to see is the Ravens permitting Harrison isolation on Jaylen Warren (or even Najee Harris). I’m concerned that on first downs, with Harrison aligned as an inside linebacker, the Steelers will do just that. I don’t see Harrison as an improvement over Trenton Simpson in the run game from the interior. Clearly, the Ravens disagree. But one thing is for certain. Simpson – who likely won’t play barring injury – has a much better chance covering either Steelers running back. Pittsburgh would do well to scheme Harrison into coverage.
Pass Rush
The Ravens must contain Russell Wilson in the pocket. That means their edge rushers must keep their discipline and not run too far up the arc. Stunts will likely figure prominently, as will odd line mixes, but let’s not rely too heavily on Michael Pierce dropping into the middle of the field. That absurdity, which brought the funniest play I’ve ever seen, shouldn’t be repeated.
Playoffs
So here’s my team ranking going into the playoffs. I caveat it with this: if the Lions were healthy on defense, they’d be my top Super Bowl seed:
- Kansas City
- Detroit
- Philadelphia
- Baltimore
- Buffalo
- Los Angeles Rams
- Denver
- Minnesota
- Green Bay
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Tampa Bay
- Washington
- Houston
- Pittsburgh
I hadn’t really watched the Vikings until last week’s game against Detroit. The Sam Darnold I saw looked like the Sam Darnold I remember from New York. That quarterback couldn’t handle the pressure – of the game or the moment – against the Lions. He’s very suspect – and as a result so are the Vikings – going into the playoffs. Can any of the bottom five teams on my list surprise? If I had to pick one, it would be Washington.
Why do I have Denver so high? Because of their defense and their excellent quarterback play. But it’s a very tough road for them.
