The trade deadline is three days away. There’s a lot for Ravens fans to think about. Below, I take a look at the pitiful defensive (and sub-par offensive) performance against Cleveland. Then, let’s focus on some defensive suggestions and some other stuff.
Lessons From the Cleveland Loss – Lord, The Defense
Wondering why Marcus Williams may start this week against Denver? Because Eddie Jackson was that awful against the Browns. Forgetting his dropped interceptions, Jackson continued his season-long assignment confusion. It was a horror show.
I’m avoiding single play detail his week, but with Jackson it just happens over and over again. And when he’s beaten on deep field coverages, which he was last week, his recovery speed is non-existent. Pick your poison, Jackson or Williams, because one or the other will kill you. As noted earlier this week, the Ravens simply must acquire a safety (or put Brandon Stephens back there). I’m praying for a Phoenix-like return for Williams.
Jalyn Armour-Davis failed in his starting assignment. With only one or two exceptions, he did a great job covering open air, but a poor job covering actual football players. And Brandon Stephens contributed his worst performance of the year, unable to stay attached on man coverage, and struggling on plays where he had to cross the field.
Roquan Smith? It was the same old story for poor (well, not really) Roquan. His pass defense play is continually marked by slow reaction, missed assignments, and a general unawareness of responsibilities. His play has not improved at all.
Zach Orr Continues to Put Players in Sub-Optimal Positions
He did it again against Cleveland. I counted at least four plays where one of the following players was tasked with dropping into coverage: Travis Jones, Odafe Oweh, Kyle Van Noy, and Nnamdi Madubuike. Why? Take a look at the discussion deeper in this post. I know I don’t want to see any of those guys playing in a zone or covering a man. Do you?
A Few Thoughts on the Offense Versus the Browns
Cleveland was very effective dealing with the Ravens run-option plays. They brought their safeties down very quickly and, for the most part, their defensive ends stayed disciplined. In this situation, when the safeties come down as quickly as Cleveland brought them, the Ravens run-option call should expand out to a run-pass option. The play caller should recognize this, and perhaps the quarterback too. Cleveland would have been very susceptible to Lamar pulling back the ball and attacking those safeties. Perhaps this week?
My favorite wide open receiver, Rashod Bateman, who continues to be the most open receiver in the league, dropped that deep ball in the sun. But what wasn’t viewable on television was this. Earlier in the drive (at the 10:43 mark of the fourth quarter) at the Ravens 20 Lamar caught the Browns with too many men on the field. The play ran and Isaiah Likely was wide open in the middle of the field. The Cleveland safety was confused and Likely was a solid eight to ten yards behind everyone. This should have been the easiest 80 yard touchdown pass in the world. But Lamar overthrew Likely (he failed to put air under the ball) and the pass fell incomplete. The Ravens did not score on this drive.
No need to dwell on critical play call mistakes by Todd Monken. Everyone saw it. The game just isn’t that complicated, not with the personnel the Ravens possess.
Defensive Suggestions: Zach Orr’s Schemes, To Date
Everyone is wondering, why is the secondary such a mess this year compared to last? Why is the pass rush seemingly much less effective? Let’s take a look at these questions and look for fixes. Obviously, personnel changes are needed. And the Ravens effectively traded Geno Stone and Ron Darby for Eddie Jackson and Nate Wiggins. So far, downgrades. But what about scheme changes?
Strategy in the Secondary
Data is very helpful when considering the Ravens problems on the back end. There is a plethora of defensive coverages that can be utilized, and the Ravens use a bunch of them. I’ll try to keep this as straightforward as possible.
A Brief Primer
Fans are familiar with the concepts of Cover-1 (a single safety deep down the middle of the field), Cover-2 (two safeties deep, dividing the field into two parts), Cover-3 (utilizing three safeties deep with generally four defenders underneath), Cover-4, also known as quarters coverage (four defensive backs each covering one quarter of the field but in a man coverage usage, with three defenders underneath), and Cover-6 (a combination of Cover-2 and Cover-4). There’s also Cover-0, generally an all-out blitz.
Covers 1 and 3 are generally known as middle-of-the-field closed coverages, which is exactly what it sounds like. The middle of the field is covered. Covers 2 and 4 are known as middle-of-the-field-open, in which the middle of the field is left uncovered.
Zach Orr’s Usage
The data shows that the Ravens use Cover-6 the tenth most in the league, the highest for any coverage they utilize. Yet, the effectiveness of that coverage is ranked only 25th in the league (I’ll skip the detailed math). Generally said, Cover-6 is the most complicated coverage scheme, whereby players must understand their varying responsibilities. Ravens film is littered with mental mistakes in these coverages, and the data supports what the eyes see.
The Ravens aren’t ranked in the top half of the league in any of the various coverages other than Cover-3, where they sit at number 15. Yet, they are 22nd in the league in utilization of Cover-3. This raw data alone suggests that Zach Orr should reorient his coverage hierarchy. More Cover-3, a lot less Cover-6.
The coverage data from 2023 is different. The Ravens played much more Cover-3 under Macdonald, and a ton of Cover-1 on third down.
In my recent post on Trenton Simpson, I pointed out how Orr effectively took Simpson off the field for games three through seven on passing downs. This led to a ton of dime (six defensive backs) coverage calls. Last year, the Ravens rarely used dime coverage; only 1% of the time.
Disguising Defenses
Part of the regular confusion we see in the Ravens defense is no doubt related to the extent of “disguise” that Zach Orr utilizes pre-snap. This year they are disguising their defense on 41.5% of the plays so far, fourth highest in the league. In Cover-3, they are using it 64.1% of the time, third highest in the league. And it’s not working.
The Ravens “simulated blitz rate” (which is just what the name suggests) is 26%, the ninth highest in the league. The league average is 19%.
The coverages and disguising defense data strongly suggest that the players “aren’t getting it.” They are unable to both execute the disguises and then execute their required coverage responsibilities as they move out of the disguises. The situation is screaming for simplification.
The Pass Rush
First, let’s look to some data. The Ravens overall have the tenth highest PFF grade for pass rushing. Does that surprise you? On an individual level, I look at the pass rush grade on true pass sets (the most stable methodology for measuring rush effectiveness) for edge rushers who have played at least 20% of the pass rush snaps. Odafe Oweh, is ranked a very solid 17th in the league, and Kyle Van Noy comes in at 27th. These two guys aren’t the problem. Want to know why David Ojabo was benched last week? He ranks 85th in the league. Tavius Robinson? He’s 89th in the league. And if he had enough snaps to qualify, Yannick Ngakoue would be ranked at 73rd.
It’s clear. The Ravens top two edge rushers have been very solid and have been one of the better duos in the league. Their rotating partners have been awful. Acquiring a situational pass rusher, if one were available, would be helpful.
On the interior we’ve seen a dramatic decline in the effectiveness of Nnamdi Madubuike, at least statistically. Last year he was the 13th best interior defender (graded over 83) in this regard and Michael Pierce was 28th. This year Madubuike is the fourth best (out of four) on the Ravens. What’s going on here?
Defensive Suggestions – Stunting (or the Lack Thereof) and Blitzes
Though I don’t have the raw data at my fingertips, I know from last year’s film review that Madubuike benefitted significantly from the Ravens’ rush schemes. Patrick Queen was very effective smashing guard blockers on numerous occasions, freeing up Madubuike. Tackle stunts and edge stunts also regularly freed him up.
According to PFF data, in 2023 the Ravens stunted on 242 plays (fourth highest in the league). They generated 111 pressures on these stunts, the most in the league. But this year the Ravens stunt rate is only 24%, which is 21st in the league. Through week five (I couldn’t locate fresher data), the stunt pressure rate was fourth worst in the league.
Maybe Orr has comparatively abandoned the stunt given his personnel, who knows. I know I wouldn’t hesitate to marry David Ojabo to Madubuike on some stunts. Ojabo’s footwork is good enough for this to be effective. And the same for Ngakoue and Madubuike.
Orr is currently a bit hamstrung on the interior, with Travis Jones still suffering from a bad ankle, Broderick Washington also hobbling, and Michael Pierce out for at least four weeks. But given the playing time allotted to Tavius Robinson (who just can’t rush the quarterback), a little more stunting with him might also be helpful to Madubuike. It couldn’t hurt Robinson.
The Ravens blitz data is also revealing. Kyle Hamilton has a sensational true pass rushing grade (over 90), and we see it every week. He’s just terrific at it. Seemingly, no one else is an effective blitzer. The team is 26th in the league in pass blitz rate. And they blitz the sixth most in the league on third and long. Interestingly, the Ravens blitz the fifth least on second and long situations.
Now I think about this, given the Ravens porous secondary, and I wonder whether I would flip those second and third down rates, blitzing more on second and long, and less on third and long. Win that second down and have seven in coverage on third down.
Edge Rusher Trades?
Too bad the Ravens didn’t pursue Joshua Uche, who went to the Chiefs. He’s a solid situational pass rusher, and I’m not sure much else is available. For fans screaming to bring back Jadeveon Clowney, his pass rushing performance in 2024 has fallen off a cliff. Sure, the Panthers are terrible, and he’s only had 148 pass rush plays. But his true pass rush rate is a putrid 50.2, yielding one sack. Last year, his true pass rush rate was 84.9, coming in at 21st in the league. I don’t have time to watch his tape. I’m sure the Ravens do.
So who could be out there from teams that should be sellers? Dennis Gardeck of Arizona has had a solid true pass rush rate. Keion White from New England is too good and young to be traded. Perhaps Carl Granderson could be had, though there are salary cap issues. Tennessee’s Arden Key might be the most likeliest to be traded and he could help rotationally. Za’Darius Smith? Big contract, ok production this year.
I’ll try to get to cornerback targets before Tuesday, we’ll see.
Let’s Remain Upbeat
The offense remains tremendous. Keaton Mitchell will be back soon too, and we’ll have to see how they incorporate him. The Diontae Johnson trade was brilliant for reasons I’ve already cited. Yes, the Ravens offense stops itself on occasion, as they did in Cleveland. But no defense has stopped them yet. I’m looking forward to the Pittsburgh game.
Errata
This weeks errata.
Travis Jones
The run defense has struggled a bit in the last two games because of Travis Jones’ bad ankle. Even now, Jones remains fourth in the league in run defense win rate, which is outstanding. With two games coming up in the next five days, it is going to be that much harder to get Jones healthy. They desperately need him.
The Defensive Tackles
These next two games are really going to be challenges in those trenches. Michael Pierce is out for four weeks, Jones is banged up, Broderick Washington is banged up, and Brent Urban is out tomorrow. Chris Wormley (remember him?) and the veteran Josh Tupou were elevated from the practice squad. No doubt Denver will attack the Ravens middle, putting even more pressure on Roquan Smith.
Marlon Humphrey
Simply said, they need him back as soon as possible.
Odafe Oweh
For whatever reason, it caught my eye this week that Oweh was very ineffective rushing the quarterback from a stand-up position. He was much more effective with his hand in the dirt. I don’t have time to go back and study tapes from earlier in the year. But if there is a pattern here, that must be corrected.
Defensive Focus Against Denver
For me, I’m playing Trenton Simpson full time, and sticking with five defensive backs as much as I can. I might try Simpson a bit on a stunt or two or with speed on the outside. I don’t trust anyone alongside Marcus Williams on the back end other than Hamilton. Eddie Jackson doesn’t play, barring an injury. I don’t want to sacrifice playing Hamilton up front. But since the Ravens might have to, perhaps blitz Marlon (if he plays) out of the slot a little more.
And, keep the quarterback contained in the pocket. Oh, and please score more than 30.
