Ravens: Change is Blowin’ in the Wind

Film study and resulting thoughts will come later in the week.  But given that the trade deadline is looming, and the myriad of issues facing the Ravens defense, I’m compelled to make an extra post or two.  Any clear-eyed general manager, and Eric DeCosta is that, realizes that this team cannot win the Super Bowl with the current defense.  Self delusion leads to failure.  There is change blowin’ in the wind.  This post looks at the safety fiasco and possible options for improvement.  But first, a thought on Diontae Johnson.

The Johnson Trade

Obviously, the Ravens gave up next to nothing to get Johnson.  And they will only pay the weekly minimum salary for the rest of the season (roughly $600,000).  Johnson is not coming here to replace Rashod Bateman, not by any means.  League-wide, Bateman is first in separation percentage for receivers with more than 50 chances.  As I’ve said many times, this guy is open, open, open.  His two drops in Cleveland, though disappointing (one due to the fall sun) don’t change this calculus.

Johnson brings needed depth to the receiver room.  Both Zay Flowers and Bateman have injury histories (Bateman – bite my tongue – in particular).  Though Nelson Agholor has done a very good job blocking and making himself available as an occasional third wideout, he’s not a starting caliber receiver at this point.  Johnson is.

Yes, Johnson brings a bunch of personal baggage, behaving his way out of Pittsburgh.  But make no mistake, this guy is an outstanding route runner, as Ravens fans well know.  He’s not Zay Flowers quick, but he is quick, and can cut on a dime.  It’s a solid move from the Ravens perspective.  I worry a bit whether Johnson will sublimate his personal needs (he’s a free agent and likely won’t get volume targets in Baltimore).  But if he reflects on his situation, part of what Johnson needs to do to enhance his desirability is prove that, for him, it is actually team-first, player second.  We will see.  But this is a low risk move for the Ravens, and a smart one.

By the way, I’m expecting a surprising “injury” for Devontez Walker, for whom there is no room in this year’s receiver room.

Blowin’ in the Wind: Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson

Readers know I’ve been writing from almost week one that both Williams and Jackson are terrible.  The Ravens have been mum concerning Williams’ benching last week.  That, combined with his awful performance (let’s not mince words) leads to the singular conclusion that Williams is finished in Baltimore, barring injury.  Yes, some big dead cap money looms for 2025 (almost $13.5 million) for Williams, but that’s irrelevant.

Eddie Jackson was on a major decline last year.  That decline has accelerated.  He can’t play on the back end.  It’s an old song for me.  He’s part of the problem; he’s not part of the solution.

After Jackson and Williams, What’s Left?

Like it or not, barring a transformational trade at the safety spot (see below), Kyle Hamilton must head to the back end of the secondary.  There’s no choice.  Arthur Maulet and Marlon Humphrey will have to man the slot position.  I’ll get to Trenton Simpson this week in a subsequent post (it’s not what Ravens pundits think with him) and how this might impact his utilization.  But we’re looking at Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington (who has also made too many mistakes) on the back end.

Who Can/Should the Ravens Try to Acquire at Safety?

Yes, the Ravens must acquire a starting caliber free safety.  It’s a necessity, not a luxury.  Can they?  Let’s look to the teams that should be sellers at the trade deadline.  In my view, this group consists of the following clubs: Arizona, Carolina, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Miami, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, the New York Jets, and Tennessee.

Now, among those teams, which if any free safeties are playing at a level that could make a difference for the Ravens?  In making that judgment I’m relying more on data and brief glimpses, as I just don’t have the time to do a film study.  But preliminarily, my short list consists of the following players, in order of my preference, and divided into two groups:

Top Tier Choices:
Jabril Peppers, New England
Budda Baker, Arizona
Tyrann Mathieu, New Orleans

Lower Tier Choices:
Tyler Nubin, New York Giants
Isaiah Pola-Mao, Las Vegas
Quandre Diggs, Tennessee
Marcus Maye, Miami

Jabril Peppers

Peppers is my clear favorite.  Why?  Because statistically he’s by far and away the best free safety in coverage among the group.  The 29 year old Peppers was a first round selection in 2017 and had a rough early start to his career.  But he had an outstanding 2023 season as a coverage safety, and has followed that up with an equally excellent start to 2024.  Peppers is under a very favorable contract for the next three years (through 2027), with cap numbers going from $7 million in 2025 up to $8.25 million in 2027.  At age 29 he’s exactly the type of player that the rebuilding Patriots should dangle.

The Ravens expect to have 11 draft picks for the 2025 draft.  And perhaps some of their rookies (who aren’t playing) might be of interest to New England, who knows.  But Peppers is absolutely a player I’d pursue.

Budda Baker

The almost 29 year old Baker will be a free agent after this year.  He’s more versatile than the smaller-bodied Peppers, as Baker has played 247 snaps at free safety this year and 192 as a box safety.  He’s not nearly as effective in coverage as Peppers, with the latter being an elite coverage safety at this point.  But Baker is more than adequate in coverage in his own right.

Now Baker’s versatility offers the Ravens the ability to move both Hamilton and Baker around the field at any time.  That’s intriguing, but to me not essential.  The goal of any free safety trade, in my view, is to lock down that horribly porous back end, and I think Peppers is better equipped to do that.  That’s why I prefer him, for the Ravens, over Baker.  But Baker is no mere consolation prize.

Arizona most likely will lose Baker to free agency after this year.  Could he bring Arizona a fourth rounder as compensation in the 2026 draft?  Perhaps.  I’m not thinking third rounder.  But if fourth round compensation in 2026 is correct, could the Ravens secure him for a fifth rounder in 2025?  Would they give up a fourth rounder?

Tyrann Mathieu

The Ravens could have presumably signed Mathieu in his prime.  They went for Marcus Williams instead.  The Sugar Bear is now 32.5 years old, and has just been fair as a cover safety this year.  Sure, there’s always an attraction to acquire a veteran like Mathieu who should be able to steady the back end given his experience and wisdom.  He’s on this list because he has to be.  But he’s a notch below both Peppers and Baker at this point in his career.

Tyler Nubin

Nubin is not a highly recognizable name.  He was a second round pick this season for the Giants and that, alone, means its highly unlikely they would move him.  Nubin has size and length, traits you don’t mind having in a free safety.  He’s had a solid start to his career in coverage, but he is a rookie and still on a learning curve.  I view an acquisition of Nubin has highly unlikely, but he’s worth a mention.

The Others

Candidly, I’ve never film studied Isaiah Pola-Mao’s play.  He’s an undrafted free agent who, statistically, has graded very well for Las Vegas this year, but it’s only been this half season where’s he’s really played.  That feels too risky to me as a trade possibility.

Quandre Diggs is 31.7 years old.  He’s played well this year, but was poor last year.  I’m not chasing that type of player at his age.

Marcus Maye is only on the list because he’s been fairly decent in coverage this year.  But he too is 31 years old, so I’m not racing to the phone to call the Dolphins on him.

Trade Summary

The Ravens should do what it takes to acquire Peppers or Baker.  They simply have to come away with one of these guys if at all possible.  If not, is Ed Reed available?

The Safety Mess: A Different Thought

If the Ravens can’t pry away their man, are any other options available?  Yes.  Brandon Stephens started his career as a safety.  Failing a safety acquisition, the Ravens could chase a corner or two (I’ll get to targets in another post).  There are scenarios where Stephens could be the surprising internal answer to this problem.  I don’t expect it.  And Stephens would probably hate the move given that he’s likely expecting a good payday as a starting corner.  But don’t sleep on this thought.

Blowin’ in the Wind: Part II

In my next post I take a hard look at Trenton Simpson’s role in the defense.  Is he being used properly?  Should his use be altered?  Some of the local pundits now maintain that part of the reason for Roquan’s Smith poor performance is because Patrick Queen is gone.  I’ll take a look at that too.  Do the Ravens need to acquire an inside linebacker?