By all means the Ravens should win this game. There are no excuses this time around, even without Marlon Humphrey and Mark Andrews. Let’s consider a few pre-game thoughts before kick-off.
Marlon Humphrey’s Loss Should Not Be Critical
The Ravens are fortunate that Tank Dell’s place on injured reserve has him in civvies for this game because his loss leaves the Texans with only Nico Collins as a serious downfield threat. Robert Woods doesn’t scare anyone, and neither does John Metchie. Ron Darby will take Humphrey’s place. Darby has played reasonably well in both man and zone packages this year (though his tackling has been inconsistent). Barring an in-game injury to the Ravens’ corners, Marlon’s inability to play is not a nightmare (as it might have been in previous years).
The Texans Passing Game
Nico Collins is a serious threat all over the field. Although Collins is not an absolute blazer, he hits top gear quickly for a big receiver (6’4 and 215) and, as a result, he can run away from tacklers. The Texans like to put him in motion, though given the Ravens reliance on zone coverages motioning Collins should be less impactful.
The Browns’ game witnessed the Texans scheming to get Collins isolated against man coverages. They also run packages designed to force switching. It’s unlikely, however, that Collins will see much by way of man coverages out of the Ravens. The Browns had numerous breakdowns in the secondary in their man packages, particularly from their nickel back and slot corner. They rotated between running a lot of single high safety (cover-1) looks and cover-3 looks with some man coverages, all of which the Ravens (who live and die in cover-2) rarely do.
I expect the Texans to utilize structures designed to free Collins towards Ron Darby and away from Brandon Stephens. I would. Stephens can physically compete with Collins in ways that Darby can’t. It is critical that the Ravens safeties avoid breakdowns and not let Collins (or anyone else for that matter) get over the top. The Texans like to test the back end five or six times a game, and Marcus Williams and Geno Stone must maintain their depth. Stone in particular must avoid too much peeking into the backfield.
The Texans like to run tight end Dalton Schultz down the seam, and deep down the seam. With Kyle Hamilton back in the slot, to the extent that Hamilton is tasked with coming forward, passing Schultz off to the corners (in zone), inside linebackers or safeties needs to be flawless. The Ravens have handled transitions and pass-offs at an elite level so far, and need to continue to do so.
C.J. Stroud
Yes, Stroud is the real deal. He has exceptional poise and pocket awareness (even for a veteran) and is largely un-phased. Stroud regularly gets to his second and third reads, and understands where to look for his hot receiver when pressure becomes intense. He is not one to immediately (or more generally) take off, preferring to stay contained. Against the Browns, pressure typically came from the edge, allowing Stroud to step up. The Ravens need to push the middle of the pocket against Stroud, making him as uncomfortable as possible and aggravating his footwork. It’s important for Justin Madubuike, Michael Pierce and Travis Jones to do just that. The Texans run a few boots, but Stroud primarily is a pocket passer.
Stroud has the early makings of a very special player. He forced only one pass, by my count, against the Browns into double coverage that should’ve been picked off. Otherwise, the bright lights did not affect him. At home, at least. The Ravens should give him a more complicated challenge, with unpredictable rushes and disguise.
Houston and the Run Game
Devin Singletary is the Texans run game. He had a decent season and still has some nice pop, but he’s not a burner. Singletary is most effective cutting back and slanting towards the edge, but he’s not a top-end back and it’s hard to see the Texans making a commitment to Singletary in this game. They just don’t run the ball very well. More generally, the Texans ran the ball only 42% of the time this year. Now, if they get ahead of the Ravens by two scores they could look to ball control through the run game. But even with the Ravens’ challenges defending the run in Cover-2, will Houston really change their stripes for this game and rely on the run game?
The Ravens are susceptible in the run game, but the Texans aren’t the team structured to exploit it.
Pre-Game Thoughts: The Texans Pass Defense
Let’s start with what really looked bad against the Browns. The Texans linebackers (notwithstanding the pick-six by Christian Harris) seriously struggled both in getting depth in zone packages, and more generally understanding where they needed to be. Harris, Denzel Perryman, and Blake Cashman were each a liability against Cleveland’s pass game.
This is a game for the Ravens to attack the middle of the field. Crossers and motion should give the Texans trouble. None of these linebackers can handle Isaiah Likely, frankly, anywhere on the field. Pass route structures that widen the field should really help Baltimore.
Moreover, against the Browns the Texans corners played deep-off coverages a large portion of the time. I’m talking pre-snap ten yards off of both wide receivers. That’s not going to work well against the Ravens. There are a lot of opportunities against the Texans secondary, and although Derek Stingley, Jr. is a strong corner, their group as a whole is lacking. They start DeAndre Houston-Carson (a Ravens practice squad player this year) at strong safety, after all, and Jalen Pitre, the free safety, was inconsistent at best against the Browns.
The Ravens should attack down the field against Houston, much like they did against the Rams earlier this year. The Texans back end is a big liability.
The Texans Pass Rush Versus the Ravens Offensive Tackles
These two matchups will be the key to the effectiveness of the Ravens offense. And both matchups will be challenging for the Ravens. Jonathan Greenard is tremendous off the snap, and Will Anderson can be too. Both players were banged up coming out of the Browns’ game, and we’ll see whether either or both is impaired.
But to the extent either player can bring his “A’ game, Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses better be on theirs. Both Greenard and Anderson bring excellent speed rush repertoires (though not exclusively so). As a result, the Texans love to align them in extreme Wide-9 technique. Now as we saw against the 49ers (who also utilize a lot of Wide-9) teams are reluctant to deploy Wide-9 against the Ravens. You just can’t have your defensive ends running up the arc to the quarterback with no run responsibilities against Lamar Jackson. To the extent the Ravens see the Wide-9 (unless they are behind by two scores) the Ravens should be able to gouge the Texans front with runs inside the defensive ends and with run-pass option plays.
When Greenard and Anderson line up more traditionally, Stanley and Moses will have to hold up. We witnessed Todd Monken giving Stanley a lot more help as the season wore on. Pat Ricard outside of Stanley’s shoulder, and running backs and tight ends chipping, wouldn’t be a surprise. To me, Greenard is slightly more effective to this point than Anderson, so Moses should get some of that help too. Will Monken continue to rotate in both Pat Mekari and Daniel Faalele? I wouldn’t, at least not with Faalele, who just can’t handle speed rushers.
The Texans also do quite a bit of blitzing off of the slot, requiring Lamar to stay poised. Justice Hill is outstanding picking up blitzes, but the Ravens line must recognize their blitz pick-up responsibilities, where they have sometimes struggled.
How Do the Ravens Lose?
Turnovers are always critical, so no need to focus there. The Ravens defense must maintain its discipline and smarts in the secondary as it has most of the season. No mental mistakes in coverage packages. They will yield yards in the run game if the Texans want them, but absent Ravens’ turnovers it’s unlikely that this will be the difference in the game.
On offense, handle the two defensive ends and the Ravens should be able to put up a bunch of points. If the offensive tackles struggle, the Ravens could as well. But the Texans just don’t have the defensive personnel to compete against the Ravens skill position players.
The hard cold weather might impact Lamar’s (irregular) deep passes, but Todd Monken will call for them in any event. Attack down the field and in the middle. Utilize motion with Isaiah Likely and Zay Flowers. Some misdirection and a some RPO’s sprinkled in.
Special teams has also had its share of troubles, with spotty coverages on kicks, some yielded blocked kicks, and poor placemen punting. It’s essential to avoid breakdowns because that can be the big equalizer between teams that otherwise are not equally matched.
By and large, if the Ravens lose it will likely be because they beat themselves.
