My rookie wide receiver scouting report will be up soon. But in the meantime, there’s another wide receiver angle for the 2023 Ravens that I’d like to explore. And it’s called De’Andre Hopkins. It’s been reported that Hopkins wants out of Arizona – and that the Cardinals are seeking at least a number two draft pick. But the phones apparently haven’t been ringing in Arizona. What will happen to Hopkins, and can the Ravens get him? Here’s my Ravens pre-draft wide receiver concept.
I’ll address the Arizona perspective below. But from the Ravens viewpoint observers have readily conceded that their cap situation just won’t permit them to acquire the Hopkins contract. The Ravens only have $3 million of cap space as this is written, observers point out. And they barely have $500,000 of effective cap space. But this analysis lacks creativity. The Ravens are in a better situation to acquire Hopkins than one might think.
The Hopkins Contract
Why? Let’s start by looking at the Hopkins contract. He has a $19.45 million salary due this season with two years to go on his contract. He’s 31 years old. From a cap perspective, if the Ravens acquire Hopkins and extend his contract three more years, they could convert roughly $18.2 million of his 2023 contract into bonus, spreading that $18.2 million over five years. That would put his 2023 cap number for the Ravens at just under $5 million. Let’s assume the Ravens have to throw him an additional $5 million of bonus for the favor, and his cap number could be approximately $6 million.
The Ravens Salary Cap and a Lamar Jackson Deal
Wait, you say, the Ravens only have $500,000 of effective cap space, so how could they do it? It all starts with Lamar Jackson. There are rumors – just rumors – that Jackson told the Ravens that if they added Odell Beckham and Hopkins as wide receivers, he’d come back. If Lamar is willing to sign a long term deal, how much cap space could the Ravens realistically free up?
The Kyler Murray and Josh Allen Contracts
Both Kyler Murray’s and Josh Allen’s contracts can give us some insight. Let’s look at Allen’s contract first (amounts in millions – minor workout bonuses not included).
| Year No. | Base Salary | Prorated Bonus | Roster Bonus | Cap Number |
| 1 | $4.1 | $11.7 | $0 | $16.3 |
| 2 | $1.0 | $17.0 | $0 | $18.6 |
| 3 | $13.5 | $17.0 | $6.0 | $47.0 |
| 4 | $14.0 | $17.0 | $25.0 | $56.6 |
| 5 | $22.5 | $17.0 | $15.0 | $52.2 |
| 6 | $14.0 | $5.3 | $25.0 | $45.2 |
| 7 | $15.5 | $0 | $25.0 | $41.5 |
Now, Kyler Murray
| Year No. | Base Salary | Prorated Bonus | Roster Bonus | Cap Number |
| 1 | $2.0 | $13.0 | $0 | $16.0 |
| 2 | $37.0 | $13.0 | $0 | $51.8 |
| 3 | $13.5 | $13.0 | $6.0 | $47.0 |
| 4 | $18.0 | $13.0 | $11.9 | $45.6 |
| 5 | $19.5 | $7.2 | $14.1 | $43.5 |
| 6 | $34.0 | $0 | $9.7 | $46.3 |
What immediately sticks out in both deals is how much money is thrown into annual roster bonuses – and the fact that the roster bonuses don’t start until year 3. This is how you keep cap numbers low for the initial years of these giant quarterback contracts. Then you expect the league cap to increase substantially come years two and three.
The interesting thing about Murray’s deal is the size of his base salary in year two, which makes his year two cap number over $51 million. But the Cardinals could easily convert a bunch of that salary into bonus, allowing them to pro rate it over the balance of the contract, reducing that year two cap number.
Lamar’s Prospective Deal
Informed by the Allen and Murray contracts, let’s assume the Ravens sign Lamar to a five year deal with a total of $136 million in guaranteed money. Year one salary could easily be in the $2 million range and let’s assume that’s part of the $136 million guarantee. That leaves $134 million guaranteed to be divided between prorated bonus and roster bonus. Or (and) the Ravens could split off some of that guarantee into future guaranteed salary. At a 50-50 ratio, that leaves $67 million in prorated bonus and $67 million in roster bonus.
Over five years, and assuming an equal annual allocation, the prorated bonus works out to $13.4 million per year. Then, to be generous to Lamar, let’s say there’s a $5 million roster bonus in 2023. That works out to a total cap number of $20.4 million in 2023. Presto, the Ravens have saved over $14 million in cap space! Obviously, it could be even better than that.
What Could a Hopkins Trade Look Like?
The Cardinals are allegedly looking for at least a second round pick for Hopkins. They have $20.7 million of cap space, so there’s no cap pressure forcing them to move Hopkins. But there are not even any rumored takers for Hopkins at the Cards’ alleged price tag. Sure, the Cards will save a bunch of cap space by trading Hopkins (almost $9 in a trade before June 1; almost $20 million post June 1). But they likely aren’t going anywhere this year, and it makes sense to move him off the roster at age 31.
I’m not saying Brandin Cooks is a perfect comparison, but at age 30 the Texans received a 2023 fifth round pick and a 2024 sixth round pick. That’s a far cry from the Cardinals’ demand for Hopkins.
Would the Cards take a fourth rounder in 2024 for Hopkins? Would a third rounder induce them? How about trading a fourth rounder next year and Devin Duvernay at age 26? Although Patrick Queen is undoubtedly available, the Cardinals really don’t have a need there. There are possibilities here for sure. If Lamar Jackson is willing to sign, the Ravens could certainly acquire Hopkins. How’d you like Beckham and Hopkins on the outside, and maybe Duvernay or a rookie on the inside? Lamar, it’s up to you!
