Anthony Richardson<\/a> or C.J. Stroud still available?<\/p>\nThe Texans\u2019 Quarterback Strategy and Lamar<\/h3>\n
Why focus there?\u00a0 Because in that situation I could imagine the Texans, with pick 12, considering trading for Lamar Jackson.\u00a0 It\u2019s a reasonably good strategy for Houston.\u00a0 Take the best defensive player in the draft at selection two, and then do one of three things.<\/p>\n
First, use your pick 12 to trade back up and snatch either Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, or C.J. Stroud.\u00a0 Or, second, use your pick 12 on a non-quarterback and play for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes in 2024 (though that\u2019s a tough bet because the Texans have so many high picks this year and are bound to be better in 2023).\u00a0 Or, third, use your pick 12 and trade for Lamar Jackson.<\/p>\n
In the third situation, the Ravens absolutely must listen if Richardson is still on the Board.\u00a0 And maybe Stroud too.\u00a0 Yes, the Ravens would undoubtedly sacrifice 2023 if they swap for Richardson.\u00a0 In that case they\u2019d probably either just throw Richardson into the waters and see how he swims, and\/or go get Teddy Bridgewater as a stop-gap until they think Richardson is ready.<\/p>\n
Which Leads to a Lamar Rant . . .<\/h3>\n
But in the larger picture, the Ravens would unburden themselves from the whole Jackson albatross\/spectacle\/hell, whatever.\u00a0 They would completely reset their salary cap situation for the next four years.\u00a0 And, they would come out with a bounty of draft capital, both this year and in 2024.<\/p>\n
At heart, the base question for the Ravens is this: do they really believe that Jackson can take them to a Super Bowl in the next four or five seasons at a monster multi-year contract number that they don\u2019t want to pay?\u00a0 I\u2019ve made several attempts to address the Lamar situation.\u00a0 His contract stance with the Ravens at this point makes so little sense (unless he has something worked out post-draft) that it\u2019s difficult to fathom how we get there.<\/p>\n
Of all the top quarterbacks in the league who have signed big contracts, the Ravens are stuck with the only player who is so selfish that he doesn\u2019t care how difficult he is making it for the team to build around him.\u00a0 Jalen Hurts was wise enough to figure out that \u201cit takes a village\u201d to make a championship team.\u00a0 As he put it \u201cmoney is nice, championships are better.\u201d\u00a0 But Lamar is not that guy, pure and simple.\u00a0 He\u2019s money-selfish, period.\u00a0 And as any everyday football fan will tell you, we\u2019re just talking crazy money at these levels anyway.\u00a0 As Lamar put it, he wants to be a billionaire.\u00a0 Now that\u2019s the guy to build your team around in a hard salary cap sport!<\/p>\n
Want another example of this money selfishness?\u00a0 Allegedly, Lamar told the Ravens to go out and get Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins, and then he\u2019ll sign.\u00a0 But the Ravens can\u2019t acquire Hopkins unless Lamar has already signed, freeing up the necessary cap space to get Hopkins.\u00a0 Yup, that\u2019s the Ravens leader.<\/p>\n
Will Anyone Else Trade for Lamar During the Draft?<\/h3>\n
I think not.\u00a0 For the Colts, it they want Lamar their best strategy is likely to draft a non-quarterback at pick four and then sign Lamar after the draft.\u00a0 The Commanders just don\u2019t have enough cap space to force the Ravens\u2019 hand.\u00a0 The Lions?\u00a0 Don\u2019t bet on it.\u00a0 Could the Falcons jump in?\u00a0 Who knows.<\/p>\n
For that matter, I wouldn\u2019t bet on the Texans\u2019 scenario either.\u00a0 Maybe there\u2019s a 20% probability they go in that direction.\u00a0 It would excite their fans, no doubt.\u00a0 But if it doesn\u2019t happen, the Ravens remain in what appears to be an unescapable situation.<\/p>\n
More on Round One \u2013 Wide Receivers<\/h2>\n
If the Ravens wind up drafting one of the wide receivers in round one (in that eventuality, hopefully Flowers), it would be no surprise if they then trade Devin Duvernay.\u00a0 The more I think about it, if the top three receivers on this team become Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., and Zay Flowers, where exactly does Duvernay fit in?\u00a0 On the punt and kickoff units.<\/p>\n
Duvernay is in the last year of his rookie contract.\u00a0 Sitting here today, it\u2019s hard to see the Ravens re-signing him unless he gets starter opportunities in 2023 and produces.\u00a0 Duvernay\u2019s cap number for this season is $4.5 million.\u00a0 That\u2019s just way too much for your fourth receiver (at best; Agholor might be seen as the fourth).\u00a0 If they trade Duvernay, they create $4.3 million of cap space.\u00a0 And there are quite a few post-May 1 free agent targets that the Ravens could use that money to pursue.\u00a0 I\u2019ll address that post-draft.<\/p>\n
Given all of this, if the Ravens draft a wide receiver in round one, I think they will do their best to trade Duvernay during the draft.\u00a0 What\u2019s he worth?\u00a0 Probably a sixth rounder.\u00a0 Or maybe a fifth rounder in the 2024 draft.\u00a0 The only possible variable in that situation is if the Ravens draft Quentin Johnston, who will definitely play on the outside.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think that changes the core analysis of trading Duvernay, but it could create more opportunities in the slot for Duvernay.<\/p>\n
More on Round One – Should They Go Out on a Limb at Pick 22?<\/h2>\n
I did not do a player report on Brian Branch, the 5’11 and 190 pound safety from Alabama.\u00a0 Branch had a very successful college career playing largely in the slot.\u00a0 He’s a player who has excellent quickness in the short areas where slot corners live.\u00a0 He is very aware, has a high level of understanding both with run and pass plays, is a very good tackler, and is very instinctive.\u00a0 Branch has been effective both in man coverages and zones.<\/p>\n
Now Branch is by no means an elite athlete.\u00a0 He ran an ordinary 4.58 forty and otherwise had testing that was average at best.\u00a0 And he by no means has the body size you like for playing around the line.\u00a0 Though he’s listed as a safety, he rarely played on the back end in college, living almost exclusively in the slot and in the box.<\/p>\n
If everyone on my first round list is gone, should the Ravens draft Branch and make him their slot corner?\u00a0 NFL offenses play three or more wide receivers on slightly more than 50% of their plays.\u00a0 I see Branch just as a slot corner at this point, with different skills than Kyle Hamilton brought last year.\u00a0 He obviously lacks Hamilton’s size, and you wouldn’t expect Branch to be batting down balls at the line of scrimmage.\u00a0 Would Branch be on the field 75% of the time?\u00a0 Because if the Ravens can’t play him at least that much, he’s just not worth selecting at pick 22.\u00a0 It’s all a matter of how Mike Mcdonald would use him.\u00a0 I’d go in a different direction.<\/p>\n